10jan24-A sign Villar is gaining: Foes ganging up on him

pascual BINABATO: Just by the way the big boys on the other side of the fence have been ganging up on him, it is obvious that Sen. Manny Villar, Nacionalista Party presidential bet, is rising fast in the surveys and on the campaign trail.

Everybody, including survey frontrunner Sen. Noynoy Aquino, Liberal Party presidential candidate, appears threatened by Villar’s surge. The LP camp has joined the gang war against Villar.

Sabi nga nila, ang punong hitik sa bunga ay siyang mas madalas binabato. (The tree most heavy with fruit is stoned most often.)

His rivals are throwing everything at him, including the kitchen sink and the septic tank.

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BIG SHIFT: The stark figures give Aquino, at this stage the only serious contender together with Villar, reason to worry.

In the Social Weather Stations latest (Dec. 27-28) survey, the LP standard bearer led his NP rival by only 8 percentage points – a 29-point drop from his earlier stunning lead of 37 percentage points in the SWS survey of Oct. 1-4.

The Dec. 27-28 nationwide survey of 2,100 respondents had Aquino garnering 52 percent to Villar’s 44 percent. Compare this to the Oct. 1-4 survey involving 1,200 respondents giving Aquino a whopping 65 percent to Villar’s distant 28 percent.

Whatever reasons are given for Aquino’s drop from 65 to 52 percent and Villar’s gain from 28 to 44 percent, the changes are statistically and politically significant.

It seems that the initial overblown survey results buoyed by emotional responses are -- like erratic stock market prices -- just correcting themselves and settling to more realistic and credible levels.

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FULL PICTURE: The SWS was prompted to release the full data of its Dec. 27-28 survey after a partial disclosure led to conflicting and confusing interpretations of respondents’ preferences based on a list of eight presidential candidates.

The SWS was authorized (to make a full disclosure) by San Juan. Rep. Ronaldo Zamora, who commissioned the survey.

The Dec. 27-28 survey asked: “Sa mga sumusunod na pangalan sa listahang ito, sino po ang malamang ninyong iboboto bilang PRESIDENTE ng Pilipinas, kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon?” (Among the names on this list, who will you probably vote for as PRESIDENT, if elections were held today?)

The partial results based on the list of eight gave Aquino 44 percent, Villar 33 percent, and former President Erap Estrada 15 percent. They were the only ones in the lead pack holding two-digit survey ratings.

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ONE-ON-ONE: But when another question in the survey pitted Aquino versus Villar, with everybody else excluded from the list, Aquino got 52 percent and Villar 44 percent, for a difference of only 8 percentage points.

The same one-on-one challenge was tested in the Oct. 1-4 survey, commissioned by Ms. Avic Amarillo (an aide of Villar). It elicited a score of 65 percent for Aquino and 28 percent for Villar, or a difference of 37 percentage points.

The Dec. 27-28 survey used face-to-face interviews of 2,100 adults, for an error margin of ±2.2 percent. The Oct. 1-4 survey used face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults, for an error margin of ±3 percent.

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OTHER SCENARIOS: The same Dec. 27-28 survey commissioned by Zamora tested four other scenarios, presumably to get data for strategic planning.

* From a list showing seven names without Estrada, the score was: Aquino, 49; Villar, 38; Teodoro, 6; Villanueva, 2; Gordon; 1; Madrigal, 1; and De los Reyes, 0.3.

* From a list of seven names without Teodoro, the score was: Aquino, 45; Villar, 35; Estrada, 14; Gordon, 2; Villanueva, 2; Madrigal, 1; and De los Reyes, 0.4.

* From a list of showing only Aquino, Teodoro, and Villar, the preferences were: Aquino, 50; Villar, 40; and Teodoro, 7.

* From a list of showing Aquino, Estrada, and Villar, the preferences were: Aquino, 47; Villar, 37; and Estrada, 14.

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DEAD HORSE: The way the anti-Villar forces in the Senate are beating the C-5 dead horse is pathetic. The issues have long been answered, but they are probably banking on the habit of many Filipinos of swallowing the worse said of politicians.

The issue of double insertion (two P200 million outlays allegedly inserted into the budget for the same project), looks like a lame play on people’s minds. The Senate’s own inquiry has turned up the fact that the first P200 million was meant for one section of the C-5 road and the second P200 million for ANOTHER PART of the long road running from southern Metro Manila to Cavite.

If there is any solid case at all, we can be sure a criminal complaint would have been filed by now in court. But there is none.

Inquiries that sometimes degenerate into inquisitions in aid of publicity are among the reasons why the Senate has not been productive as a lawmaking body.

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CERGE’S LOVE: Listen to the late Press Secretary Cerge Remonde read lyrical love poems at 5-6 p.m. today over DWBR (104.3 fm) or via Internet (www.pbs.gov.ph/dwbr) on “The Law of the Heart is Love” program hosted by lawyer Romy Macalintal.

Aside from the poems, which were pre-taped, you can hear Cerge’s lively exchange with Macalintal, an election lawyer of President Arroyo, before and after the taping.

Cerge, a top broadcast journalist before he joined the Cabinet, read three love poems from the book of American poet James J. Metcalfe. Macalintal also played the song “Bridge over Troubled Waters” requested by him.

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